In an effort to limit global warming, the European Commission has set an ambitious goal of reducing emissions by 90 percent by 2040 compared to 1990. All industries must take concrete steps to align their operations with this target.
However, the aviation industry plans to more than double passenger traffic by 2050 compared to 2019, which presents a significant challenge to achieving climate goals.
The organization Transport & Environment (T&E) analyzed the potential impact of this growth on greenhouse gas emissions. Although sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) are increasingly used as an alternative to fossil kerosene, the predicted increase in traffic will negate the benefits of these fuels. T&E estimates that, despite improvements in efficiency, aircraft in 2050 will consume 59 percent more fuel than in 2019.
Another issue concerning the further development of this industry is the sustainability of alternative fuels. According to reports, the European aviation industry could use up to 24.2 million tons of bio-kerosene by 2050. However, it is alarming that four out of five liters of this fuel could come from non-sustainable sources. It is worth noting that biofuel production often involves agricultural land, which can lead to further deforestation as land is converted into arable fields. Additionally, some types of biofuels do not result in significant emissions savings when their entire lifecycle—from production to use—is taken into account.
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On the other hand, e-fuels are produced using renewable energy sources, such as solar or wind power, and by capturing COâ‚‚ from the atmosphere or industrial facilities. This process makes them a more sustainable choice compared to biofuels, as they reduce emissions throughout their lifecycle and do not require the use of agricultural land.
However, producing e-fuels is extremely energy-intensive. A large amount of electricity is needed to produce just one liter of e-fuel, meaning their widespread adoption depends on expanding renewable energy production capacity. If these capacities do not grow quickly enough, the aviation industry will not be able to rely on e-fuels as a key tool for decarbonization.
Alternative fuels are still not sustainable enough to offset the projected increase in traffic. Without policies to limit the growth of the aviation sector, emissions from this sector will not decrease rapidly enough and could even lead to an additional 960 million tons of CO2 by 2050.
T&E is urging the European Commission to take steps to halt infrastructure expansion, reduce business travel, and address the issue of frequent flying.
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