Climate change has left serious consequences in six Caucasus countries, causing glacier retreat and reduction in river flows, according to a new report from the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) published ahead of the COP29 conference.
The report, titled Caucasus Environment Outlook (CEO-2), focuses on the Caucasus region, covering Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, as well as parts of Iran, Russia, and Turkey.
This document reveals that glaciers have, on average, receded by 600 meters over the past century, and since 2000, more than 11 billion tons of freshwater, previously stored in ice, have been lost. Water is becoming an increasingly unevenly distributed resource in the Caucasus countries; for example, groundwater withdrawal in Armenia has doubled since 2000, while in Azerbaijan it has increased by as much as 400 percent.
The report also predicts that by the end of the century, river flows in this region could decrease by about 20 percent. Furthermore, between 2000 and 2020, the annual flow of the Kura River, which flows through Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, decreased by 20 percent. With diminished snow and glacier coverage in mountainous areas, the report foresees further declines in freshwater supply and calls for cross-border data exchange and innovative solutions to mitigate the impacts.
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Additionally, according to estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), average temperatures in the region could rise by about 3.6°C by the end of the century compared to the baseline from 1970-2000. The Caucasus region is facing intensified heat waves, with a significant increase in the number of extremely hot days in Azerbaijan. In Baku, between 1991 and 2020, 365 days with temperatures above 35°C were recorded, compared to 86 days during the period from 1960 to 1990.
The temperature increase will most severely affect mountainous areas, where glacier melt already poses a serious risk of flooding. The impacts of climate change were felt in August 2023 when a devastating mudflow, triggered by heavy rains and melting ice, claimed at least 24 lives in Georgia.
In addition, soil erosion, exacerbated by heavy rainfall and unsustainable practices, is reducing arable land, especially in Turkey, where 71 percent of agricultural land and 59 percent of pastures are affected.
Despite the challenges, the UNEP report highlights the potential for progress through renewable energy sources and the expansion of protected areas. Azerbaijan now protects over nine percent of its territory, while the protected area in Georgia has increased to nearly 11 percent.
The report’s authors add that climate change adaptation measures should be integrated into policies and legislation, requiring strong political support. Urban planning should also take environmental factors into greater consideration, and cross-border watershed management plans should be developed.
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