NOVI SAD STEPS INTO THE WORLD OF ELECTROMOBILITY

03.12.2023

Regarding recent investments in innovation and infrastructure, Novi Sad was one of the most engaged cities in the country. The flat terrain that the city rests on has been successfully used for the development and expansion of bicycle paths, and recently, the city held a competition for the distribution of subsidies for cyclists, thanks to which there will be fewer traffic jams, plus boosts what is the healthiest and cleanest transport for people and the environment. Recently, a so-called turbo roundabout was commissioned, whereby drivers choose their direction before entering the roundabout, which should further expedite the traffic at that section. Apart from these innovations in infrastructure and traffic, starting this summer, ten new electric buses are now cruising the city, all part of the fleet owned by the Novi Sad Public City Transport Company (JGSP Novi Sad). We spoke with Apolonija Holo, Head of the Investment Maintenance Department at JGSP Novi Sad, about new buses, the company’s plans and the advantages of electric vehicles.

Q. When and how did the idea to include electric buses in public city transport develop? Have these buses replaced the oldest models that have served their time on the roads?

A. Our company’s engineers closely follow the development of the bus industry and new technologies and analyze the current market, so every new addition to the JGSP Novi Sad’s fleet follows technological achievements that ensure a higher level of safety, affordability, comfort and environmental protection. In recent years, our fleet received a hundred new CNG-powered buses, which will be discussed later. This decision is a substantial step forward.

Investing is part of Novi Sad’s larger involvement in the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) programme—Green Cities— which provides support to cities that want to invest in green and sustainable infrastructure, thereby solving key environmental challenges. With its Green Cities programme, the EBRD had already helped Novi Sad’s public transport to have 29 new buses as part of the ongoing fleet renewal program, when 100 new CNG-powered vehicles were purchased. This type of bus significantly reduces emissions of polluting gases, and they were purchased in 2020 and 2021.

The Novi Sad government signed a document with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in June 2020, stipulating its intentions and ambitions for purchasing electric buses. A year later, after being granted a loan with favourable terms and conditions, the procurement ensued.

The company strives to continuously renew its vehicle fleet so that a certain number of old buses are written off by purchasing new vehicles as needed.

IN FOCUS:

Q. Could you tell us more about the performance of these buses? Which exact models did you buy, and which countries did you import them from?

A. After the public procurement was completed, we decided to go for Solaris from Poland, a company whose buses are used for public transport throughout Europe. Solaris has been repeatedly awarded for quality and innovation in Poland, as well as in other countries. At the same time, Solaris Urbino 12 electric buses, which are now part of the JGSP Novi Sad fleet, won the prestigious 2017 European Bus of the Year award.

These are low-floor, twelve-meter-long buses that can take up to 80 passengers plus the driver. In addition to the equipment that is generally standard in our vehicles (built-in air conditioning, platform for disabled passengers, cameras and video surveillance), the new buses have modern Mirror Eye mirrors. It is a set of cameras that replace conventional mirrors and show the driver the area immediately around the bus, significantly increasing traffic safety. Furthermore, they are equipped with Mobileye Shield+, a solution designed to avoid traffic accidents making driving safer. Thanks to this system that notifies the driver with sound and visual signals where pedestrians and cyclists are and how far the bus is from nearby vehicles, the problem of blind spots is solved. The buses also have a fire extinguishing system and an alcohol testing device—the vehicle’s immobilizer.

Q. How many vehicles does JGSP Novi Sad have in total? What are immediate and not-so-immediate plans regarding this type of electromobility?

A. The JGSP Novi Sad fleet currently has 276 vehicles. According to most research and the regulation being adopted worldwide, electromobility is currently apostrophized as the future of traffic. Following our capabilities and needs, we will adapt to sustainable and economical transportation trends.

Q. Could you compare the financial advantages and disadvantages of conventional buses and new electric ones?

A. Electric buses are more expensive to operate, but only in the beginning. However, the affordability goes in their favor from the moment they start using them. According to data for April 2023 (internal statistics of energy consumption and purchase prices), the cost per kilometer for diesel buses is 65 RSD/km, for CNG buses 46 RSD/km, while for electric buses it is 20 RSD/km. Furthermore, we all know that city traffic is one of the major sources of pollution and we are aware of that part of our responsibility, as companies whose vehicles travel millions of kilometers annually. By investing in a sustainable form of mobility, we will contribute to improving the quality of the environment.

Prepared by: Milica Vučković

Read the story in the new issue of the Energy portal Magazine ELECTROMOBILITY

Strong policy progress on energy efficiency seen in 2023

02.12.2023

Elektricna-energija- — Foto-ilustracija: Pixabay

Policy makers around the world expanded measures to promote energy efficiency in 2023, helping consumers save money and improving the security and sustainability of the global energy system – though progress is not moving fast enough to meet the world’s climate targets, according to a new IEA report.

The Energy Efficiency 2023 market report, published today, finds that policy momentum for energy efficiency continues to build following the global energy crisis set off by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Investments in efficiency have grown by 45 percent since 2020, and in the past year, countries representing three-quarters of global energy demand have strengthened energy efficiency policies or introduced new ones. Key measures are also becoming more widespread. For example, almost all countries now have efficiency standards for air conditioners, and the number of countries with standards for industrial motors has tripled within the past decade.

However, the report found that global improvements in energy intensity – a primary measure of energy efficiency – slowed in 2023. According to the report, this was the result of factors such as an economic rebound in energy-intensive sectors such as petrochemicals and aviation in some regions, as well as booming demand for air conditioning during what is on track to be the hottest year on record.

The IEA’s analysis has shown that to achieve net zero emissions from the energy sector by 2050, which is essential to limit global warming to the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 °C, annual improvements in energy efficiency need to double – rising from a level of 2 percent in 2022 to more than 4 percent per year on average between now and 2030. In 2023, global energy intensity improved by 1.3 percent, well below what is needed to achieve this target.

“The world’s climate ambitions hinge on our ability to make the global energy system much more efficient. If governments want to keep the 1.5 °C goal within reach while supporting energy security, doubling energy efficiency progress this decade is critical,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “The findings of this report are a stark warning to the leaders gathering shortly at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai that they all need to commit to stronger action on efficiency and to deliver on it.”

A global commitment to double energy efficiency improvements this decade is one of the IEA’s five pillars for a successful outcome at COP28, which begins this week. Other priority actions to 2030 include tripling global renewable energy capacity; oil and gas companies committing to clean energy transitions, including cutting methane emissions from their operations by 75 percent; boosting clean energy investment in emerging markets and developing economies; and ensuring the orderly decline of fossil fuel use, including an end to new approvals of unabated coal-fired power plants.

Photo-illustration: Freepik (rawpixel.com)

The slower global rate of efficiency improvements masks some strong gains at the national level. After improving energy intensity by 8 percent in 2022, the European Union is set to post a 5 percent improvement this year. The United States is also on track for a 4 percent improvement in 2023. Since the start of the energy crisis, more than 40 countries in total have improved energy efficiency at a rate of 4 percent or more for at least one year.

The report notes that consistent and widespread efficiency gains are crucial to drive down emissions, especially given expectations for global growth in electricity demand. For example, universally switching to LED technology for lighting in the United States could save enough energy to power 3 million electric vehicles per year or heat 2.6 million homes with heat pumps.

The report also finds that achieving the doubling target would deliver substantial benefits for governments, citizens and industry. Under this scenario, employing workers in activities like retrofitting homes, installing heat pumps and manufacturing more efficient cars would lead to the creation of 4.5 million more jobs. It would also cut today’s home energy bills – reducing them in advanced economies by around one-third, for example. The climate impact would also be enormous. Doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030 would lower global carbon dioxide emissions by over 7 billion tonnes, equivalent to the emissions from the entire transport sector worldwide today, according to the report.

Source: IEA

THE PATH TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF E-MOBILITY

29.11.2023

why-kei-8e2gal_GIE8-unsplash(1) — Photo-illustration: Unsplash (Why Kei)

In cooperation with the Faculty of Mechanical, Traffic and Electrical Engineering, the National Association of Autonomous and Electric Vehicles (NAAEV) is holding the sixth E-mobility Forum in Belgrade on October 11 and 12. The Forum will be organized under the auspices of the Ministry of Science, Education and Technological Development and the Ministry of Construction, Transport, and Infrastructure. The event will focus on challenges and innovative technological solutions in autonomous and urban mobility, including industry, academia, and city representatives. We spoke with Dalibor Ignjatović, Director of Innovation at NAAEV, about how far Serbia is on the road to the development of e-mobility and what measures should be implemented for people to travel safer and faster with electric vehicles.

“We started in 2015 with the idea of incorporating Serbia into the changes underway in global mobility at that time. We aim to direct Serbian scientific research and industrial potential towards cooperation on projects focused on innovative urban mobility solutions. Thanks to a contract, we have included the 11 largest technical faculties in Serbia and 14 domestic high-tech companies. In 2019, NAAEV received the status of HUB for Serbia from the European Institute of Innovation and Technology—Urban Mobility (EIT-UM), and this year we became a member of the European Association Connected, Cooperative and Automated Mobility (CCAM). As a result of the engagement of its capacities within a significant number of European urban mobility projects, NAAEV has become a contact point for scientific and research institutions, companies, and cities in Serbia, which the Association directs and includes in projects related to development, research and testing of electric and autonomous vehicles, infrastructure, and their components”.

IN FOCUS:

How have the authorities responded to NAAEV’s activities on engaging scientific and research potential in the development of electric vehicles?

Bearing in mind the scope and dynamics of changes in electric and autonomous transport, NAAEV forwarded several strategic initiatives to the Serbian government and line ministries regarding developing this field in our country. These include the 10-point Studies Programme for Electromobility in Serbia and the Guidelines for the Development of Electromobility in Serbia from 2019 to 2025, which contains 10 measures, the implementation of which puts Serbia on an efficient path towards e-mobility. We proposed the formation of an interdepartmental working group and the deadlines within which these measures could be implemented. However, so far and despite the steps towards the improvement of e-mobility that are being undertaken in Serbia, a lot of things are done slowly and are unsynchronized, because a clear institutional infrastructure has not been established yet, nor the necessary regulatory and strategic environment.

According to your estimates, how many electric four-wheelers are there in Serbia and how many chargers? How do you evaluate infrastructure development, and how can e-mobility develop faster?

This question is seemingly easy to answer. According to certain criteria, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles can be counted as e-vehicles. These two categories, as well as Battery Electric Vehicles, significantly contribute to green transport implementation.

As part of the study on the development of electromobility for the city of Belgrade from 2022 to 2030, which was carried out by NAAEV and commissioned by the World Bank, an assessment was made according to which, by the end of 2022, almost 11,500 e-vehicles in Serbia that belong to the aforementioned vehicles should have been registered, which is less than one per cent of the total number of vehicles in the country. The study also showed that over 90 per cent should have been plug-in hybrid vehicles. The key point of the transition towards the electrification of private and public transport vehicles is the establishment of an adequate e-infrastructure, i.e. the availability of charging stations. In addition to undefined regulatory aspects in Serbia, the limited number of charging stations for electric vehicles is one of the main obstacles to carrying out the electric transition easily and quickly.

Photo-illustration: Pixabay (Autoknipser-de)

According to your estimates, at what rate will the number of e-vehicles and chargers increase in Serbia in the coming period? How can we improve the charger network?

Bearing in mind the analysis that the World Bank commissioned, the assumption is that the growth of the number of battery-powered electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles in Serbia on an annual basis in the period until 2030 will amount to five per cent. As for chargers, according to the same analysis, Serbia will need slightly more than 2,000 EV charging stations by 2030 to fulfil the needs of the expected number of users. I would like to underline that this is not only about the number of required chargers but also their structure and appropriate spatial arrangement. Fast charging (7—22 kW) and Rapid charging (50—99 kW) chargers will be installed in urban areas, while Ultra-rapid charging (100—360 kW) chargers will be installed on motorways.

How are autonomous transport solutions tested in Serbia? Where do we stand when it comes to regulations for autonomous vehicles?

Driverless autonomous vehicles are slowly becoming a reality, and statistics show that human error is the cause of more than 90 per cent of traffic accidents. In some countries, robot taxi services are already functioning and in addition to transporting passengers, robotic delivery in urban areas and, in particular, solving long-distance transportation of goods is a very near future. America and China are leading in developing legislation, which is the primary prerequisite for further developing and applying these technologies. Europe is still far behind in this matter. That’s why the arrival of Self Driving Group, a subsidiary of Yandex, which announced the testing of autonomous vehicles in Belgrade, gives Serbia a significant opportunity to become one of the first European countries to implement these state-ofthe-art services.

Interviewed by: Mirjana Vujadinović Tomevski

Read the story in the new issue of the Energy portal Magazine ELECTROMOBILITY

What is fuelling the world’s antimicrobial resistance crisis?

28.11.2023

close-up-lekovi — Foto-ilustracija: Pixabay

Foto-ilustracija: Unsplash (Bill Oxford)

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is one of the greatest global health threats. It was associated with an estimated five million deaths in 2019, and if left unchecked, it could have a catastrophic impact on people and the economy. Research from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) shows it could shave US$ 3.4 trillion off GDP annually and push 24 million people into extreme poverty in the next decade.

Pollution from the pharmaceutical, agriculture and healthcare sectors is one of the main drivers of AMR, which occurs when bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites evolve over time and develop the ability to defeat the drugs designed to combat them.

A recent study found that more than a quarter of some 258 rivers around the world were polluted with drugs to a toxic degree. The highest concentrations of active pharmaceutical ingredients were found in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and South America.

“Limiting the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance is critical to preserving the ability to treat diseases, reduce food safety and security risks, fight inequities and protect the environment,” said Jacqueline Álvarez, the Chief of the Chemicals and Health Branch at UNEP. “AMR is a complex and interconnected crisis. It requires preventative and management measures with a ‘One Health’ approach that recognizes that the health of people, animals, plants and the environment are closely linked and interdependent.”

To mark World AMR Awareness Week, which takes place from 18 – 24 November every year, here is a primer on what is driving the spread of AMR.

1. Misuse of antibiotics

Excessive and inappropriate use of antibiotics can lead to antibiotic-resistant strains of bacteria. People can misuse antibiotics by not completing the prescribed course of antibiotics, using the incorrect dosage or being prescribed antibiotics unnecessarily. This haphazard approach, coupled with the improper disposal of drugs, allows more resistant bacteria to thrive, multiply and potentially lead to the development of superbugs that are difficult, if not impossible, to treat with existing antibiotics.

Antimicrobial misuse in the livestock sector, aquaculture, companion animals, and crop production is also a major concern with a risk for the development and spread of antimicrobial resistant microorganisms.

2. A lack of access to clean water and sanitation

Poverty, lack of clean water and poor sanitation make AMR worse. People living in places with limited access to water, sanitation and hygiene are at greater risk of coming into contact with contaminated water that may carry a variety of pathogens, including bacteria resistant to antibiotics. Animals are also more susceptible to diseases when hygiene conditions are poor.

AMR also exacerbates inequities within societies. Vulnerable groups, including women, children, migrants, refugees, and those living in informal settlements, are particularly vulnerable to drug-resistant infections and may have less access to health systems. Uncontrolled and untreated sewage exacerbates the problem.

3. Pollution from pharmaceutical companies and farming

Pollution from pharmaceutical manufacturing, livestock farming, aquaculture, intensive crop production and the healthcare sector are key drivers of AMR. Although the pharmaceutical industry has helped to improve public health, untreated or inadequately treated waste from drug manufacturing factories often ends up in the environment, contributing to the build-up of drug-resistant microbes. The improper disposal of unused and expired medicines also fuels the spread of AMR.

The overuse of drugs in agriculture remains a concern as farmers around the world continue to rely on antimicrobials to maintain the health of animals and, in some cases, promote their growth. Meanwhile, up to 75 per cent of antibiotics used in aquaculture or aquafarming may be lost into the surrounding environment. Fungicides, antibiotics, and other chemicals used in crops are usually applied directly into the environment and could result in higher local concentrations of these pollutants with subsequent effects on antimicrobial resistance.

4. Mass movement of people

Foto-ilustracija: Unsplash (Indrajeet Choudhary)

Rapid globalization has resulted in increasing numbers of people and goods moving across borders. In 2019 alone, a record 4.5 billion people travelled by air. The mass movement of people may contribute to the burden of antimicrobial resistance by allowing resistant microorganisms to travel from one side of the world to the other. Research has shown that antimicrobial-resistant bacteria carried by humans may persist for up to 12 months after travel, further contributing to the risk of AMR transmission.

To complicate matters, according to the UN Refugee Agency, there are currently 110 million forcibly displaced people around the world. Many of them lack access to basic rights including proper housing, healthcare, water and sanitation, which are all factors that increase the spread of AMR.

5. Climate change and biodiversity loss

The climate crisis is exacerbating antimicrobial resistance. Extreme weather events, such as floods and rising temperatures, help proliferate microbes in the environment. Flooding can cause wastewater and sewage that is full of antimicrobial-resistant microbes to overwhelm treatment plants and contaminate surrounding areas. Biodiversity loss makes AMR worse by diminishing the richness of plant species that might hold the key to medicines that can treat infections now resistant to drugs.

Source: UNEP

The shift to the green economy leads to big and small transitions

27.11.2023

ljudi-put — Photo-illustration: Pixabay-StockSnap

Photo illustration: Unsplash (Micheile Henderson)

The global shift to net zero will require major structural changes in economies, as well as extensive change in daily lives. The scale of the transition is unprecedented: from the rush to source critical raw materials to the reconfiguration of global supply chains; from the rise of green skills in the workforce to the development of environmentally sustainable housing markets.

The EBRD Transition Report 2023-24: Transitions big and small, published today, offers revealing insights into the way macro-level trends leading to carbon neutrality impact the types of job sought, household management and, ultimately, the perceived level of happiness in the regions where the Bank operates.

EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorcik said: “The change and upheaval that stems from these trends will affect people’s lives for the foreseeable future. Policymakers will need to establish a deep understanding of those effects in order to plan future stages of the green transition, as individual attitudes will both shape and be shaped by that transition process. […]

“The success of the green transition will depend on winning their hearts and minds as we continue our journey towards a cleaner future. If there is one thing we have learned from 30 years of transition in the EBRD regions, it is that reforms will not last unless they have broad-based support.”

Big transitions

Climate change, technological development and geopolitical tensions are all reshaping global supply chains in significant ways.

The production of green and digital technologies requires reliable access to critical raw materials. Several EBRD economies, including the Czech Republic, Morocco, Tajikistan and Türkiye, are major producers or home to relatively large reserves of raw materials used for solar power and the fuel cell sector. However, establishing new mines and refining facilities will require considerable time and investment.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and the fragmentation of global trade are transforming value chains in a way that offers a potential opportunity to increase exports from economies in the EBRD regions.

Small transitions

Happiness

Using rich data recently collected by the EBRD and the World Bank through the fourth Life in Transition Survey, the Transition Report reveals that average life satisfaction in the Bank’s regions has risen further since 2016.

People in Central Asia are the happiest, followed by notably increased scores in south-eastern Europe and eastern Europe and the Caucasus.

Overall, the upward trend probably reflects rising incomes, a shift towards more pleasant and higher-skilled jobs and improvements in health.

Jobs

In the labour market, the green economy is increasing demand for workers with green skills (who are paid an extra 4 per cent, on average). However, the ability to move from brown to green jobs remains sluggish across the EBRD regions, partly because of the slow pace of green innovation.

Green policies affect different labour-market segments in different ways, potentially upending local job markets. For example, the loss of existing jobs in the most polluting manufacturing sectors is likely to be concentrated in specific regions. Also, lower-skilled workers tend to be more sceptical about the need for environmental policies.

Housing

Post-war housing blocks are still prevalent across many of the EBRD regions. Levels of home ownership remain high, but there is limited new construction and little social housing.

Housing also has a substantial environmental footprint. Even though households consume less energy in emerging Europe, Central Asia and North Africa, residential emissions are on a par with advanced European comparators, partly reflecting a continued reliance on coal. However, there is scope for significant emission reductions through home improvements in insulation and metering.

Structural reforms

The annual publication also analyses progress on economic development and structural reforms, looking at whether economies are competitive, well governed, green, inclusive, resilient and integrated.

Over the last year, scores in the areas of inclusion and integration have increased substantially, while those for governance have declined. Across all areas, improvements have been concentrated mainly in central Europe, the Baltic states and south-eastern Europe, with declines observed in the southern and eastern Mediterranean, and eastern Europe and the Caucasus.

Source: EBRD

THE TREND OF GROWING ELECTRIC CAR SALES

26.11.2023

električni auto , punjač — Photo-illustration: Unsplash (Michael Fousert)

Photo-illustration: Unsplash (chuttersnap)

The decarbonization of road transport, which accounts for more than 15 per cent of global energy-related emissions, is a challenge that almost the entire planet is grappling with. Alternative fuel vehicles, which would replace diesel and gasoline, are one way of reducing emissions. However, electric vehicles remain the key to achieving zero emissions.

The latest Announced Pledges Scenario shows the extent to which the set goals for getting to net zero emissions by 2050 are achieved. The Scenario was published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in August 2023, and it is estimated that the growth from the current 17 million electric cars to 800 million by 2040 would lead to a reduction of transport emissions by 36 per cent.

The data also show that a significant increase in the sale of electric vehicles worldwide was recorded from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2022 when, in three years, sales increased from 4 to 14 per cent. In 2022, sales exceeded 10 million vehicles and taking 2022 as a benchmark year, the People’s Republic of China had the highest global sales of electric cars, followed by Europe and the US. With such a result, China’s share in world sales was 60 per cent.

IN FOCUS:

The EU has been investing significant effort in the decision-making process to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, including the decarbonization of transport.

One of the more important decisions, which is certainly an incentive for increasing the sale of electric vehicles, is that from 2035, only cars with zero emissions will be sold, with possible exceptions that vehicles with internal combustion engines (IE engines), which rely on e-fuels, will remain in use.

Although binding measures and national policies implemented by countries worldwide are good incentives, financial measures remain the most important ones.

According to the IEA, in 2022, the global spending on electric cars went up by 425 billion dollars, and only about 10 per cent of that spending could be attributed to government support and incentives, while the rest comes from individual consumer money.

Government incentives will not be enough to make electric cars more affordable, depending on the overall market situation. Namely, as the electric car market becomes increasingly competitive, the range of affordable models grows.

Compared to 2018, the number of available models more than doubled in 2022, reaching 500. Speaking of prices, if crude oil prices remain at last year’s quite high level, that could also boost electric car sales.

Growth in sales is expected to continue in 2023, as evident in the results that we are going to see at the end of this year. It is estimated that 14 million vehicles will have been sold by the end of the current year. If the forecasts are true, sales of electric cars could account for 18 per cent of total car sales this year.

Prepared by: Katarina Vuinac

Read the story in the new issue of the Energy portal Magazine ELECTROMOBILITY

The oil and gas industry faces a moment of truth and an opportunity to adapt

25.11.2023

power-plant-elektrana na gas — Foto-ilustracija: Pixabay

Oil and gas producers face pivotal choices about their role in the global energy system amid a worsening climate crisis fuelled in large part by their core products, according to a major new special report from the IEA that shows how the industry can take a more responsible approach and contribute positively to the new energy economy.

The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions analyses the implications and opportunities for the industry that would arise from stronger international efforts to reach energy and climate targets. Released ahead of the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, the special report sets out what the global oil and gas sector would need to do to align its operations with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Even under today’s policy settings, global demand for both oil and gas is set to peak by 2030, according to the latest IEA projections. Stronger action to tackle climate change would mean clear declines in demand for both fuels. If governments deliver in full on their national energy and climate pledges, demand would fall 45 percent below today’s level by 2050. In a pathway to reaching net zero emissions by mid-century, which is necessary to keep the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C within reach, oil and gas use would decline by more than 75 percent by 2050.

Yet the oil and gas sector – which provides more than half of global energy supply and employs nearly 12 million workers worldwide – has been a marginal force at best in transitioning to a clean energy system, according to the report. Oil and gas companies currently account for just 1 percent of clean energy investment globally – and 60 percent of that comes from just four companies.

“The oil and gas industry is facing a moment of truth at COP28 in Dubai. With the world suffering the impacts of a worsening climate crisis, continuing with business as usual is neither socially nor environmentally responsible,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Oil and gas producers around the world need to make profound decisions about their future place in the global energy sector. The industry needs to commit to genuinely helping the world meet its energy needs and climate goals – which means letting go of the illusion that implausibly large amounts of carbon capture are the solution. This special report shows a fair and feasible way forward in which oil and gas companies take a real stake in the clean energy economy while helping the world avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.”

The global oil and gas industry encompasses a large and diverse range of players – from small, specialised operators to huge national oil companies. Attention often focuses on the role of the private sector majors, but they own less than 13 percent of global oil and gas production and reserves.

Every company’s transition strategy can and should include a plan to reduce emissions from its own operations, according to the report. The production, transport and processing of oil and gas results in nearly 15 percent of global energy-related greenhouse emissions – equal to all energy-related greenhouse gas emissions from the United States. As things stand, companies with targets to reduce their own emissions account for less than half of global oil and gas output.

To align with a 1.5 °C scenario, the industry’s own emissions need to decline by 60 percent by 2030. The emissions intensity of oil and gas producers with the highest emissions is currently five-to-ten times above those with the lowest, showing the vast potential for improvements. Furthermore, strategies to reduce emissions from methane – which accounts for half of the total emissions from oil and gas operations – are well-known and can typically be pursued at low cost.

While oil and gas production is vastly lower in transitions to net zero emissions, it will not disappear – even in a 1.5 °C scenario. Some investment in oil and gas supply is needed to ensure the security of energy supply and provide fuel for sectors in which emissions are harder to abate, according to the report. Yet not every oil and gas company will be able to maintain output – requiring consumers to send clear signals on their direction and speed of travel so that producers can make informed decisions on future spending.

The USD 800 billion currently invested in the oil and gas sector each year is double what is required in 2030 on a pathway that limits warming to 1.5 °C. In that scenario, declines in demand are sufficiently steep that no new long-lead-time conventional oil and gas projects are needed. Some existing oil and gas production would even need to be shut in.

In transitions to net zero, oil and gas is set to become a less profitable and riskier business over time. The report’s analysis finds that the current valuation of private oil and gas companies could fall by 25 percent from USD 6 trillion today if all national energy and climate goals are reached, and by up to 60 percent if the world gets on track to limit global warming to 1.5 °C.

Opportunities lie ahead despite these challenges. The report finds that the oil and gas sector is well placed to scale up some crucial technologies for clean energy transitions. In fact, some 30 percent of the energy consumed in 2050 in a decarbonised energy system comes from technologies that could benefit from the industry’s skills and resources – including hydrogen, carbon capture, offshore wind and liquid biofuels.

However, this would require a step-change in how the sector allocates its financial resources. The oil and gas industry invested around USD 20 billion in clean energy in 2022, or roughly 2.5 percent of its total capital spending. The report finds that producers looking to align with the aims of the Paris Agreement would need to put 50 percent of their capital expenditures towards clean energy projects by 2030, on top of the investment required to reduce emissions from their own operations.

The report also notes that carbon capture, currently the linchpin of many firms’ transition strategies, cannot be used to maintain the status quo. If oil and natural gas consumption were to evolve as projected under today’s policy settings, limiting the temperature rise to 1.5 °C would require an entirely inconceivable 32 billion tonnes of carbon captured for utilisation or storage by 2050, including 23 billion tonnes via direct air capture. The amount of electricity needed to power these technologies would be greater than the entire world’s electricity demand today.

“The fossil fuel sector must make tough decisions now, and their choices will have consequences for decades to come,” Dr Birol said. “Clean energy progress will continue with or without oil and gas producers. However, the journey to net zero emissions will be more costly, and harder to navigate, if the sector is not on board.”

Source: IEA

IRENA and DP World Join Forces to Advance Decarbonisation Solutions for Ports and Maritime Logistics

24.11.2023

aerial-view-cargo-ship-cargo-container-harbor — Photo-illustration: Freepik (tawatchai07)

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has signed a collaboration agreement with DP World, a UAE-based global supply chain solutions company. Through the agreement, the two organizations will collaborate on decarbonising the shipping and ports sectors, aligning current infrastructure, logistics and processes with the demands of the energy transition, and scaling up the use of renewable-based fuels and electrification.

The signing took place at the DP World’s Headquarters in Dubai between IRENA Director-General, Francesco La Camera and DP World Group Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, just days ahead of the United Nations (UN) Climate Conference COP28 in Dubai.

IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera said, “To align with the goals of the Paris Agreement and meet the demands of a transforming energy landscape, we must overcome existing infrastructure barriers, including in shipping and ports. By partnering with DP World, we aim to transform these sectors, making them more conducive to the global energy transition, where renewables-based fuels will play an increasingly prominent role.”

The Director-General also commended DP World’s innovative use of smart electrification and its efforts to decarbonise its operations by 2040. Carbon emissions from the company’s UAE operations have been reduced by nearly 50 percent this year, with Jebel Ali port’s electricity now sourced entirely from renewable sources provided by the local utility provider.

DP World Group Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem said: “We are honoured to partner with IRENA on our collective journey towards a shared vision of renewable energy powering global supply chains. Together, we will drive meaningful change and set new standards for a greener future. We continue to integrate renewable energy into DP World’s business operations across our global footprint. IRENA’s work towards the tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030 means it will be an important partner for us as we continue on DP World’s own decarbonisation journey – both in the region and around the world”.

According to IRENA’s World Energy Transitions Outlook, infrastructure upgrades need to accommodate the global trade of renewable fuels between low-cost supply and high demand regions, proactively linking countries to promote the diversification and resilience of energy systems. The shipping sector itself must also rely on a diverse mix of low-carbon fuels to stay in line with the 1.5°C target, with ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen making up nearly 61 percent of the fuel mix by 2050.

Through the agreement, IRENA and DP World aim to collaborate on scaling up efforts to address supply, infrastructure and technological challenges that can increase the uptake of these renewables-based fuels.

Source: IRENA

ENERGY REHABILITATION CONTRIBUTES TO ENERGY SAVING AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

22.11.2023

Foto Opština Raška 6 — Photo: Municipality of Raška

Raška, a small town in the southwest of Serbia, situated between the mountains of Kopaonik and Golija, on the rivers Ibar and Raška, works efficiently to preserve the environment.

This municipality is one of the leaders in the district in terms of the number of subsidized solar power plants for private use, and it is working on establishing a regional waste management system and plans to invest in improving energy efficiency in the coming period. We spoke with Nemanja Popović, the Mayor of the municipality of Raška, about subsidies for solar power plants, air quality control, remediation of landfills, and wastewater processing, as well as plans for investments in environmental issues in the coming period.

Q. Last year, the Ministry of Mining and Energy and the municipality set aside 28 million dinars for subsidies for private-use solar power plants. How big is the interest in these subsidies, what are the plans, and when will the other public calls be launched?

A. The state’s strategic determination is to implement a responsible energy policy and work on improving energy efficiency following domestic legislation and EU directives. Energy policy programmes are implemented to boost energy efficiency. The effects of such measures are multiple and long-lasting and contribute to the safety of the electricity supply, the industry’s competitiveness, the increase in the population’s living standard and the reduction of the negative impact of energy on the environment. With the support of the line ministry, the Raška municipality started to implement the first energy rehabilitation measures in 2021 to improve the energy-related features of residential buildings, save energy and reduce heating costs.

A total of 17 million dinars was earmarked to implement three measures: procurement and installation of thermal insulation materials, procurement and installation of windows and exterior doors with accompanying construction works, and procurement and installation of biomass boilers/stoves. The Ministry allocated 5 million dinars to the municipality of Raška, while 12 million dinars were allocated from the local budget. At that time, 208 beneficiaries—205 owners of family houses and apartments and three housing associations—were eligible for financial support. The Solar Panel Installation Programme was given almost six million dinars in the same year, and 14 citizens opted for this type of support. A year later, 240 owners of apartments and family houses signed contracts on the allocation of subsidies for boosting energy efficiency. The Ministry of Mining and the Municipality of Raška allocated nearly 28 million dinars to implement the programme. Another 7 million dinars have been earmarked for installing solar panels—the Ministry of Mining and the municipality gave 3.5 million dinars each. A competition for the allocation of subsidies for the installation of solar panels is underway.

IN FOCUS:

Q. What is the situation in the municipality of Raška regarding air pollution? What kind of air do people breathe, and how is the air quality measurement control performed considering there is a developed industry there and households that use solid fuel for heating?

A. The only official air quality measuring station on the municipality’s territory is located in the Kopaonik National Park (more than 34 km from the town centre), where SO2 (sulfur dioxide) and O3 (ground ozone) are monitored, and the data are published on the website of the Environmental Protection Agency. In the last month, there were no violations of the monitored parameters. Since there is no measuring point within the state air quality monitoring grid in other parts of the municipality, nor has local monitoring been established, it is impossible to reliably determine whether the prescribed limit values of air pollutant emissions are exceeded in any area. We can assume that pollution exists, especially in winter, and that home fireplaces cause it. The local government participated in the project to replace the fireplaces in households, so I hope that the residents of Raška will also have better-quality air in the winter months. The industrial zone is separated from the residential one, and possible pollutants are subject to the control of the environmental protection inspection. In the case of industrial companies, regular air pollution measurements are carried out according to the law and emissions are controlled within the prescribed permitted values. The municipality of Raška does not have a heating plant, and the main road does not pass through the town centre, but it detours in the direction of Kosovska Mitrovica and Novi Pazar. That is why monitoring of the air pollution emission has not been established.

Q. What is the municipality doing to rehabilitate landfills, what has been done so far and what are the plans? How do you plan to solve the problem of solid waste disposal?

A. Waste management on the municipal territory is not carried out following the prescribed standards because the collected municipal waste is disposed of in an unsanitary landfill, which is also designated as a landfill for the disposal of construction waste and, as such, is a major environmental risk. According to the 2010-2019 Waste Management Strategy, together with the municipalities of Vrnjačka Banja and Tutin and the towns of Novi Pazar and Kraljevo, Raška was included in the waste management region. In the meantime, activities have been carried out to establish a regional waste management system for the municipalities of Raška and Tutin and the town of Novi Pazar, which form a waste management region according to the 2022-2031 Waste Management Programme in the Republic of Serbia. The conceptual project titled “Remediation, closure and recultivation of the existing unsanitary solid waste landfill in the municipality of Raška” was carried out by the Architectural and Construction Institute from Novi Sad in 2019. There is also a project that stipulates issuing a building permit for the construction of a Recycling Centre in Raška at KP 1/41 KO Raška, in the Razdolje location.

In the Batnjik area, halfway along the course of the Raška River from Novi Pazar to Raška, a net dam was installed in 2017, which prevents plastic bottles, bags and other packaging waste from floating down the river. The dam is located on a narrow stream of the riverbed. It is built of high-quality stainless steel that is 100 per cent environmentally friendly and does not damage the river ecosystem. The packaging waste collected in this way is then reused, thanks to the recycling industry.

The Raška Public Utility Company (JKP Raška) installed special bins for ash disposal in several locations, ensured the free removal of bulky waste according to the established schedule and installed larger containers in places with a higher frequency of garbage disposal. In the last twenty years, the relevant municipal services and PUC Raška have regularly removed landfills and recultivated the terrain. In cooperation with the line ministry, large landfills were rehabilitated years ago in the municipality of Raška. Certain areas are covered by video surveillance to establish an additional supervision system and help with penalizing those individuals or companies who damage the environment through their negligent behavior. Despite all the activities aimed at environmental protection, requests and appeals sent out by the relevant services and environmental associations, we are still witnessing the emergence of new illegal landfills, which spoil the environment and pollute the land, water and air. Suppose we all preserve nature, park areas, promenades and riverbanks, i.e. everything that is recognizable and characteristic of Raška. In that case, we will have a more beautiful town and higher quality of life. I would like to believe that all residents love Raška equally and that we want the town to have a clean and orderly environment. Nature has been generous to our town and its surroundings. It is up to us whether we will succeed in fighting bad habits and persevere in our intention to leave a healthy environment for generations to come.

Interviewed by: Mirjana Vujadinović Tomevski

Read the story in the new issue of the Energy portal Magazine ELECTROMOBILITY

ABB signs 500 million euros EIB financing to further drive smart and sustainable electrification technologies

21.11.2023

solar — Photo-illustration: Pixabay (Michael_Pointner)

Photo-illustration: Unsplash (arteum-ro)

ABB and the European Investment Bank (EIB), the lending arm of the European Union, have signed a 500 million euros financing agreement to support ABB’s research and development in its Electrification business area.

Global demand for electricity is growing 10 times faster than other energy sources. Addressing this increasing demand in the context of the energy transition, ABB plans to use the EIB funding to design and develop next generation electrical distribution solutions. Development efforts will include solid-state circuit breakers, eco-friendly switchgear, and technology that enhances building efficiency and automation.

ABB’s solutions are used for example in commercial buildings, industrial operations or microgrids. The funding will support R&D projects in Germany, Italy, the Czech Republic, Finland, Norway, Poland, Switzerland and several other European countries.

ABB CFO Timo Ihamuotila said: “We are delighted about the collaboration with the European Investment Bank, which reflects the key role of electrification in Europe’s energy transition. This is another important recognition of ABB’s innovation and research efforts to enable the transformation to a low carbon society.”

“Electrification is a major tool to fight climate change,” said Ambroise Fayolle, EIB vice-president in charge of the environment and climate action. “Our loan to ABB supports a company that has a long history in developing electrical products and that is committed to promoting practical solutions for greening Europe’s economy. ABB’s research will help to run homes, factories or transport services on clean sources of electricity, and this is important if we are to keep our planet from heating further.”

The EIB financing supports the European Green Deal, the European Union’s plan to become net zero by 2050. Investment in green innovation is necessary for Europe to create a sustainable economy capable of protecting its people and creating high-quality jobs.

At ABB, research and development is key to develop and commercialize technologies that are of strategic importance to the company’s future growth. Every year, a significant proportion of the company’s revenues is being invested in R&D – in 2022, 1,166 million dollars or approximately 4.0 percent of the consolidated revenues.

About 7,500 employees work in R&D in ABB, of which around 60 percent are focused on digital and software development. ABB collaborates with multiple universities and research institutions in Europe and around the globe to build research networks and foster new technologies. To strengthen and accelerate the innovation efforts, ABB also invests in and partners with start-up companies.

Source: ABB

First EBRD loan to support solar power in Croatia with InvestEU

20.11.2023

geio-tischler-tQT5KiZSKpE-unsplash — Photo-illustration: Unsplash ( Geio Tischler)

Photo-illustration: Pixabay (Michael_Pointner)

The first European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) project with the InvestEU programme, designed to support sustainable economy projects, will finance the construction of 30 MW of new solar generation capacity in Croatia. It is the Bank’s first solar photovoltaic (PV) project in the country.

The Bank has lent 10.6 million euros to three special purpose vehicles (SPVs) incorporated in Croatia for the purpose of constructing and operating three solar PV plants. The SPVs are part of the Encro Group, one of the leading renewable energy developers in Croatia.

The project will have a novel structure, relying on the wholesale market to offtake the produced electricity, and therefore not benefiting from any support schemes for renewables. It will thus demonstrate a market based alternative for the renewable energy sector development in Croatia.

The higher risks associated with novel financing structures will be mitigated by a first-loss guarantee by the InvestEU programme. This is the first application of the new programme with more than two billion euros of EBRD funding for green or circular economy projects in the Bank’s European Union (EU) economies which will be backed by EU guarantees.

The electricity produced by the solar plants will be sold directly on the market, but will also allow the client to enter into corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) at the time of its choosing.

Grzegorz Zielinski, EBRD Head of Energy Europe, said: “We are proud to be on a forefront of promoting innovative financing for renewables. This is the EBRD’s first financing of fully merchant renewable energy project in Croatia, as well as the very first project under the InvestEU Framework for Sustainable Transition. Alternative electricity offtake arrangements, as the one illustrated by this project, are crucial for scaling up renewables.”

Mark Davis, EBRD Director for Central Europe, said: “We are really pleased with this new partnership with Encro Group. Solar energy in Croatia is still underdeveloped compared with other EU countries, but it has a serious potential. This financing to three 10 MW solar PV plants – which have the required permits and approvals and will not need further regulatory support – is a welcome signal to other investors that small-scale solar PV in Croatia is already profitable.”

Iljko Ćurić, chief executive officer and owner of Encro, added: “We are proud to be able to support Croatia’s green transition, thereby contributing to the further expansion of installed solar capacity in the country. We are particularly satisfied with the fact that this is fully merchant project, demonstrating innovative ways of financing renewable projects, not only in Croatia, but also across the broader region. Implementing renewable energy sources on the island of Brač is fully aligned with the energy transition plan developed under the European Commission’s ‘clean energy for EU islands’ initiative and will reduce the island’s energy dependence on the mainland.”

To date, the EBRD has invested over 4.6 billion euros in the Croatian economy. A new country strategy, adopted in May, cites the green economy transition – including renewables – as the Bank’s top priority for Croatia.

Photo: EBRD

Additional security in gas supply for citizens, companies ensured

20.11.2023

heating-grejanje-gas — Foto-ilustracija: Pixabay

Minister of Mining and Energy Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic spoke today with Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade Peter Szijjarto about cooperation in the field of natural gas supply, the construction of oil pipelines and the strengthening of electricity transmission capacities between two countries.

Djedovic Handanovic said that the gas reserves that Serbia keeps in warehouses in Hungary are larger than last year and together with the increased domestic reserves, our total reserves are now at the level of approximately 680 million cubic meters of gas.

The meeting also discussed the announced introduction of Bulgaria’s tax on the transport of Russian gas through the territory of that country.

Djedovic Handanovic assessed that such a move would be extremely unfavourable for both Serbia and Hungary, but also for some other countries in the region and the European Union, which would also be affected. Discussions are underway about measures that can be taken to protect our position.

Szijjarto emphasised that Serbia is a reliable ally and a country that helps Hungary to be more energy secure.

He also pointed out that Bulgaria, unfortunately, made decisions that threaten the security of gas supply to North Macedonia, Serbia and Hungary, and assessed that this is unacceptable.

Source: The Government of the Republic of Serbia

SUBSIDIES FOR NEW GREEN VEHICLES

19.11.2023

Photo-illustration: Unsplash (thomas-kelley)

With subsidies for electric and hybrid vehicles, the Serbian government wants to encourage individuals to opt for environmentally friendly cars. Thus, in 2020, the regulation on the conditions and method of implementing the subsidized purchase of new vehicles that have exclusively electric and hybrid drive, as well as cars that, in addition to the internal combustion engine (IC engine), also run an electric power unit (hybrid drive) was adopted. Funds in the amount of 294 million dinars were allocated this year, which is twice as much as last year. The money will be disbursed by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, based on the received applications for funding, up to available funds.

Companies/legal entities, small business owners and natural persons have the right to subsidized purchase of vehicles, and they can submit their application by October 31.

This right is not available to companies/legal entities and small business owners who have or will have the right to subsidized purchase of passenger vehicles to buy new taxis to be used as public transport.

The regulation focuses on the fact that the subsidies are valid for new vehicles, those that have never been used nor registered until the submission of the application for subsidized purchase.

IN FOCUS:

Disbursement of subsidies

As explained, legal entities, small business owners and natural persons who buy a vehicle in instalments are required to conclude a financial leasing contract before the subsidy is disbursed and pay an amount of at least 15 per cent of the purchase price of the new vehicle to the financial leasing provider as a down payment for the approval of the leasing contract.

Photo-illustration: Unsplash (martin-katler)

If they buy a new vehicle with their funds, the subsidy is disbursed after submitting proof of the paid part of the purchase price. Then, within 15 days from the date of receipt of the decision, they are obliged to submit to the Ministry a vehicle purchase agreement, an advance invoice (if an advance was paid), a preliminary invoice and proof of payment of the remaining purchase price of the vehicle, i.e. a relevant bank statement.

Suppose the vehicle is purchased through financial leasing. In that case, they must submit to the Ministry a contract on financial leasing, a confirmation from the leasing company about the down payment amount and proof of the payment made within 15 days of receiving the Ministry’s decision.

Awarding subsidies is terminated if the amount of allocated funds in the current year is insufficient for the approval of all properly submitted applications.

For the fourth consecutive year, the Ministry of Environmental Protection facilitated the purchase of electric and hybrid cars as part of implementing measures to improve air quality and the quality of the environment. The data also show that citizens understand the importance of more environmentally friendly transport. Every year, an increasing number of such vehicles are purchased with the help of state subsidies. In 2020, that number was 112. In 2021, it was 504; in 2022, a record 715 vehicles were purchased with the help of state subsidies.

Prepared by: Milica Radičević

Read the story in the new issue of the Energy portal Magazine ELECTROMOBILITY

Greenhouse Gas concentrations hit record high. Again.

18.11.2023

emisije , zagađenje — Photo-illustration: Unsplash (Chris LeBoutillier)

The abundance of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere once again reached a new record last year and there is no end in sight to the rising trend, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Global averaged concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), the most important greenhouse gas, in 2022 were a full 50 percent above the pre-industrial era for the first time. They continued to grow in 2023.

The rate of growth in CO2 concentrations was slightly lower than the previous year and the average for the decade, according to WMO’s Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. But it said this was most likely due to natural, short-term variations in the carbon cycle and that new emissions as a result of industrial activities continued to rise.

Methane concentrations also grew, and levels of nitrous oxide, the third main gas, saw the highest year-on-year increase on record from 2021 to 2022, according to the Greenhouse Bulletin, which is published to inform the United Nations Climate Change negotiations, or COP28, in Dubai.

“Despite decades of warnings from the scientific community, thousands of pages of reports and dozens of climate conferences, we are still heading in the wrong direction,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.

“The current level of greenhouse gas concentrations puts us on the pathway of an increase in temperatures well above the Paris Agreement targets by the end of this century. This will be accompanied by more extreme weather, including intense heat and rainfall, ice melt, sea-level rise and ocean heat and acidification. The socioeconomic and environmental costs will soar.. We must reduce the consumption of fossil fuels as a matter of urgency.,” said Prof. Taalas.

Just under half of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere. Just over one quarter are absorbed by the ocean and just under 30 percent by land ecosystems like forests – although there is considerable year-to-year variability in this. As long as emissions continue, CO2 will continue accumulating in the atmosphere leading to global temperature rise. Given the long life of CO2, the temperature level already observed will persist for several decades even if emissions are rapidly reduced to net zero.

The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3-5 million years ago, when the temperature was 2-3°C warmer and sea level was 10-20 meters higher than now.

“There is no magic wand to remove the excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. But we have the tools to strengthen our understanding of the drivers of climate change through WMO’s new Global Greenhouse Gas Watch. This will greatly improve sustained observations and monitoring to support more ambitious climate goals,” said Prof. Taalas.

Global Greenhouse Gas Watch

The WMO Bulletin devotes its cover story to the Global Greenhouse Gas Watch, which was approved by the World Meteorological Congress in May. This ambitious initiative envisages sustained greenhouse gas monitoring in order to be able to account for both human activities related and natural sources and sinks. It will provide vital information and support for the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Although the scientific community has a broad understanding of climate change and its implications, there are still some uncertainties about the carbon cycle – and the fluxes in the ocean, the land biosphere and the permafrost areas.

“These uncertainties, however, must not deter action. Instead, they highlight the need for flexible, adaptive strategies and the importance of risk management in the path to net-zero and the realization of the Paris Agreement’s goals. Provision of accurate, timely, and actionable data on greenhouse gas fluxes becomes more critical,” says the Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.

It cites the need for greater information about:

Feedback Mechanisms: The Earth’s climate system has multiple feedback loops, for example, increased carbon emissions from soils or decreased carbon uptake by oceans due to changing climate as illustrated for Europe for the droughts in 2018 and 2022.
Tipping Points: The climate system may be close to so called “tipping points”, where a certain level of change leads to self-accelerating and potentially irreversible cascade of changes. Examples would include the potential rapid die-back of the Amazon rainforest, slowing of the northern ocean circulation or the destabilization of large ice sheets;
Natural Variability: The major three greenhouse gases have substantial variability driven by natural processes superimposed on anthropogenic signal (e.g., driven by El Niño). This variability can either amplify or dampen observed changes over short periods;
Non-CO₂ Greenhouse Gases: Climate change is driven by multiple greenhouse gases, not just CO2. These gases have different atmospheric lifetimes, greater Global Warming Potential (GWP) than CO2 and uncertain future emissions.

The new Global Greenhouse Gas Watch is intended to be operational by 2028.

Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in 2022

The (NOAA) Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) shows that from 1990 to 2022, the warming effect on our climate – called radiative forcing – by long-lived greenhouse gases- increased by 49 percent, with CO2 accounting for about 78 percent of this increase.

Carbon dioxide is the single most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, accounting for approximately 64 percent of the warming effect on the climate, mainly because of fossil fuel combustion and cement production.

The 2.2 parts per million (ppm) increase in the annual average from 2021 to 2022 was slightly smaller than 2020 to 2021 and for the past decade (2.46 ppm yr). The most likely reason is increased absorption of atmospheric CO2 by terrestrial ecosystems and the ocean after several years with a La Niña event. The development of an El Niño event in 2023 may therefore have consequences for greenhouse gas concentrations.

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas which remains in the atmosphere for about a decade.

Methane accounts for about 19 percent of the warming effect of long-lived greenhouse gases.

Approximately 40 percent of methane is emitted into the atmosphere by natural sources (for example, wetlands and termites), and about 60 percent comes from anthropogenic sources (for example, ruminants, rice agriculture, fossil fuel exploitation, landfills and biomass burning).

The increase from 2021 to 2022 was slightly lower than the record rate observed from 2020 to 2021 but considerably higher than the average annual growth rate over the last decade.

Nitrous Oxide is both a powerful greenhouse gas and ozone depleting chemical. It accounts for about seven percent of the radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases.

N2O is emitted into the atmosphere from both natural sources (approximately 60 percent) and anthropogenic sources (approximately 40 percent), including oceans, soils, biomass burning, fertilizer use, and various industrial processes.

For N2O, the increase from 2021 to 2022 was higher than that observed any time before in our modern time record.

Source: WMO

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