An increasing number of regions worldwide are succeeding in combining economic growth with a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, according to a study conducted by experts from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany. By analyzing data from 1,500 regions over the past 30 years, researchers found that 30 percent of these regions have managed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions while sustaining economic progress.
“We found that 30 percent of regions with available data have fully decoupled carbon dioxide emissions from economic growth. Regions with high incomes and a history of high-emission industries, as well as those with significant shares in the service and manufacturing sectors, have been particularly successful in reducing CO2 emissions while continuing economic growth,” said Anders Levermann, co-author of the study.
Although this trend represents a significant step toward the goals of the Paris Agreement, the authors caution that the current rate of decoupling economic growth from carbon dioxide emissions is insufficient to achieve the global net-zero emissions target by 2050.
The success of decoupling emissions from economic growth has been further bolstered by actions taken at the local level. Maria Zioga, a scientist at PIK and lead author of the study, emphasized that cities in the European Union that have implemented climate change mitigation plans, as well as regions with greater financial support for climate actions, show higher rates of successful decoupling.
“Europe consistently stands out compared to other parts of the world, with many of its regions recording a continuous trend of decoupling over the last 20 years. In contrast, North America and Asia have seen more oscillatory decoupling patterns over the decades, though there has been an improving trend in the past decade,” she added.
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Less Than Half of Regions Will Achieve Net-Zero Emissions by 2050
The researchers also analyzed the economic performance of 1,500 subnational regions, where an increase in gross regional product (GRP) per capita was recorded, covering 85 percent of global emissions. By combining this data with network information on carbon dioxide emissions intensities in production over the past 30 years, they identified significant global decoupling patterns.
The experts also estimated the year in which each region could potentially achieve net-zero emissions, based on past decoupling trends and their impact on emissions.
“Developed countries appear likely to meet these goals ahead of others, but overall recent trends are not enough for most regions to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century,” concluded co-author Max Kots.
He added that if current decoupling rates continue, less than half of subnational regions will manage to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. Therefore, all levels of government need to strengthen their efforts, and developed countries should increase investment in energy transitions in the Global South.
