Monthly data reported by countries representing 80 percent of global oil demand for the first six months of 2024 are now available. The data confirm the sharp slowdown in the rate of growth in oil consumption. Global demand rose by 800,000 b/d, or 0.8 percent, year‑on‑year during the first half of the year.
The recent downturn in China has been even more acute than expected, with oil demand in July declining year‑on‑year for a fourth consecutive month. At the same time, growth outside of China is tepid at best. This weaker demand environment has helped fuel a sharp sell-off in oil markets. Brent crude oil futures have plunged from a high of more than 82 dollars per barrel in early August to near three-year lows at just below 70 dollars per barrel on 11 September.
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China has been the cornerstone of the growth in global oil demand so far this century. Dynamic factory activity, massive infrastructure investments and rising prosperity across a population of over one billion people driving what has, at times, felt like an inexorable expansion in oil consumption.
Over the past decade, the annual increase in Chinese oil demand has averaged in excess of 600 000 b/d, accounting for more than 60 percent of the total global average increase. Moreover, China’s share of global demand growth has expanded since the pandemic. This year, demand outside China will remain 0.3 percent below 2019 levels, but in China, consumption will be 18 percent higher.
Source: IEA
