Coffee is much more than a beverage – it’s a symbol of meeting with good friends, an essential part of family gatherings, or a moment stolen just for ourselves, the first sip that kick-starts the day… So, the news of its uncertain fate has echoed worldwide, with whispers that droughts caused by climate change are the main culprit threatening to forever take away our favorite brew.
But let’s start from the beginning. It is well-known that coffee thrives where there is no frost, with plenty of sun and water – in temperate and tropical climates. These very regions faced harsh weather conditions in 2024, including countries that produce the largest share of coffee for the global market – Brazil and Vietnam.
Droughts and wildfires have drastically reduced coffee yields, which has directly impacted its price. By the end of November this year, the price of Arabica coffee reached a record 3.35 dollars per pound, a staggering 71 percent increase over the course of the year.
The consultancy firm StoneX estimates that Brazil’s Arabica production will drop by 10.4 percent next year. Although this decline will be partially mitigated by increased Robusta coffee production, the country’s overall coffee production is still expected to decrease by 0.5 percent.
As Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer, it’s no surprise that the market is now facing a serious crisis. The country has long struggled with extreme deforestation in the Amazon, which diminishes the ability of natural ecosystems to absorb and recycle rainfall. Adding wildfires to the mix, the result is a record-breaking drought that has lasted two years, devastating Brazilian agriculture.
According to data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), by 2050, land suitable for coffee cultivation in Central America could decrease by up to 89 percent due to rising temperatures and reduced rainfall.
When it comes to the slightly less popular Robusta coffee, Vietnam is the world’s largest producer, but this country has also faced unfavorable climatic conditions recently. Vietnamese coffee producers warn that, due to climate change, the country’s agricultural areas could be halved by 2050.
For instant coffee lovers, whose main ingredient is Robusta, this is bad news, as Vietnam’s production has already dropped by 10 percent this year.
Although the data presented here isn’t encouraging, there is hope that coffee production will recover in the coming years. Occasional good news can be found on various platforms – for instance, Colombia’s Arabica production rose by 37 percent in November 2024 compared to the same month last year.
Furthermore, beyond the worst-case scenario in which coffee production ceases altogether, there is also the possibility that, due to climate change, coffee production will simply shift to more optimal regions (perhaps one day even to Serbia – who knows?).
Either way, it has become clear that the fight for coffee is also a fight against climate change, and I remain hopeful that these black days for the black brew will soon come to an end.
Whether my connection to coffee stems from love or mere necessity (a day without it usually ends in a headache), I must admit that waking up one morning without that familiar taste and aroma would be hard to bear.
