Accurate drought forecasting could play a crucial role in managing water resources at both national and international levels, in line with the EU Water Framework Directive. As temperatures rise, precipitation patterns have become increasingly extreme—either occurring in short, intense bursts that lead to flooding or remaining absent for weeks. Long-term drought forecasting, much like weather forecasting, could significantly improve decision-making and resource management.
Existing prediction methods, which rely on short-term weather forecasts, are generally effective only for a single season and do not provide sufficient data for long-term planning. Therefore, new approaches are essential to enable timely and efficient responses to water shortages. One promising alternative method leverages knowledge of recurring patterns in large-scale weather systems.
A New Methodology for Drought Analysis
To test this approach, researchers analyzed data from two sources. The first dataset comprises records from the National Groundwater Level Archive (NGLA) of the British Geological Survey, spanning the period from 1960 to 2023. These records were used to assess the duration and intensity of droughts based on groundwater levels. The second dataset includes the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index, which measures differences in atmospheric pressure at sea level between the subtropical and polar regions of the North Atlantic.
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In the long run, such climate systems can influence weather patterns thousands of kilometers away and are a key factor in precipitation trends across Europe. Researchers compared drought trends recorded in the NGLA with the eight-year cycles identified in the NAO index to examine the significance of these correlations. By combining these datasets, they developed a model to explore how NAO affects the occurrence and duration of groundwater droughts, as explained on the European Commission’s website.
More Accurate Forecasts Up to Four Years in Advance
Research findings indicate that NAO patterns can serve as predictors of drought duration and intensity at both national and regional levels. Using this method, droughts can be predicted up to four years in advance, significantly improving upon existing models that rely on monthly data or average winter precipitation levels.
The model’s accuracy varied depending on the duration of droughts, demonstrating the highest reliability when forecasting prolonged drought events. Additionally, its effectiveness was influenced by hydrogeological regions, with the best results observed in areas where water systems respond slowly to changes in precipitation levels.
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